tuesday, july 14, 2020
[trend analysis]
1. under the expectation of the cooling down of the regulators, the three major a-share indexes have been adjusted again. the adjustment range of the gem is more than 2%. some strong stocks in the early stage have fallen by the limit, and the market has indeed cooled down. however, under the background of sharp rise, the adjustment is still within the normal range. yesterday, we predicted that the short-term rise of blue chips has been too large, and there is a demand for technical correction, which should not catch up. it can be confirmed today. therefore, when the lower market is still in the bull market, but when the high-level shock, we must pay attention to the high-low switching, grasp the main line, rationally face the shock market, and neither pessimistic nor radical operation
2. for the future, the cooling down of supervision is not to suppress the market, but to make the market go further. we should have full confidence in this and don't change our faith as soon as it falls. today's high-level shock is also a big shuffle. for investors, the bull market is silent, and each correction is a good opportunity. we need to grasp the low absorption opportunity of the correction
3. technically, the shanghai stock exchange index has gone out of a typical box shock trend at the 30 minute level. disk securities companies have become the wind vane of the market. securities companies are still being sniped by funds today, and the trend is stronger than the market, indicating that the market will also hit the high point in the early stage. in other words, today's shock is a higher goal in the future. therefore, investors can consider securities companies and technology stocks on the one hand
[foreign trade data released in june, import and export in the first half were better than expected]
the latest foreign trade import and export data released by the general administration of customs today:
in june, china's imports and exports increased by 5.1% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 4.3% and imports increased by 6.2%.
exports continued to improve year-on-year in june, mainly due to the following four points:
1. the export of epidemic prevention materials is still very high. in the first half of the year, china's export of textiles, including masks, increased by 32.4%, and the export of pharmaceutical materials and drugs, medical instruments and devices increased by 23.6% and 46.4% respectively. this growth rate has increased significantly compared with the previous five months.
2. global demand has recovered, and the comparable exports of south korea, vietnam and taiwan, china have increased year-on-year compared with may.
3. china's substitution effect on other countries is still obvious. in june, china's exports were positive year-on-year, while the comparable year-on-year growth rates of south korea, vietnam and taiwan, china were still negative despite improvement.
4. the base was low in june last year, which contributed about 2%.
at the same time, it can be found that the import and export of foreign trade in the first half of the year was better than expected. due to the epidemic, the market generally estimated china's exports at - 20%, but the actual results were much better than expected, mainly because it underestimated the role of two aspects: one is the export of epidemic prevention materials, and the other is china's substitution role for countries that have stopped work due to the epidemic.
from the data, both exports and imports achieved positive growth in june. from the quarter, after experiencing the shock in the first quarter, imports and exports stabilized in the second quarter. in the second quarter of this year, china's foreign trade imports and exports reached 7.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter. from the month, exports have achieved positive growth for three consecutive months since april.
what's more gratifying is that the sharp year-on-year recovery of imports has become the biggest highlight of this data. the year-on-year increase of imports in june is a high base, but the year-on-year dollar pricing of imports is 2.7%, which is the highest growth rate in the year and higher than the average growth rate in 2019. historically, the import data is highly related to the industrial added value, and the pmi in june has exceeded expectations, so it can be expected that the probable rate of industrial added value in june is still very good.
for china's economy, even the most pessimistic export sector is far better than market expectations, which shows that the need for strong stimulus is already very low, and the v-shaped reversal trend of china's economy is still continuing. the strong economic recovery will help a shares to stabilize and grow. it is the best choice for all kinds of funds in the world to be bullish on china and bullish on china.
[future strategy]
author: liu baoqing qifu investment consultant
practice certificate no.: a1130619110001
risk tips: the above contents are for reference only and do not constitute specific operation suggestions. therefore, the operation is responsible for its own profits and losses and risks. there are risks in the market, so the investment should be cautious