china times (chinatimes. net. cn) reporter zhang zhi reports from beijing
the thrilling devaluation of the people's currency is rushing towards 7.
according to the data of china foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of rmb against the us dollar was reported at 6.8859 on the 17th, down 171 basis points from the previous trading day.
this has been a relatively small fluctuation in recent years. on may 13, the offshore rmb devalued and fell below the 6.90 mark, falling more than 550 basis points during the day, a new low since december last year. the onshore rmb closed at 6.8721 and depreciated 603 points.
" unexpectedly, the offshore rmb exchange rate against the us dollar fell below the 6.9 integer mark in a blink of an eye." the person in charge of a foreign trade enterprise was surprised
according to the general understanding, the depreciation of rmb will enhance the international competitiveness of export products. on the basis of unchanged order price, enterprises can obtain higher profits through exchange rate difference
in fact, the impact of depreciation on foreign trade enterprises is more subtle, not entirely a positive pull effect
for the above foreign trade enterprises, since the maximum executive price of forward foreign exchange settlement set by the enterprise at the beginning of the year is 6.85, if the enterprise settles foreign exchange at this price, it will bear the exchange loss of more than 300 basis points. enterprises have to quickly settle all forward foreign exchange settlement agreements and "earn more rmb" according to the market price
for small and micro enterprises, when the exchange rate fluctuates, they dare not take long orders and can only take short orders. due to the weak bargaining power, almost all the exchange rate benefits of short orders will be "eaten". "compared with the sharp depreciation of the rmb, we prefer a stable exchange rate." the person in charge of the above foreign trade enterprises told the reporter of huaxia times
tangled foreign trade enterprises
recently, the plummeting exchange rate has erased all the gains since this year
on january 3, 2019, the offshore rmb closed at 6.8776, reaching a maximum of 6.8944; on may 6, the offshore rmb devalued and fell below the 6.82 mark, depreciating more than 600 points within the day; on may 7, according to the data of china foreign exchange trading center, the central parity rate of rmb against the us dollar was reported at 6.7614, down 270 basis points from the previous trading day, a new low since february 19; on may 13, the offshore rmb devalued and fell below the 6.90 mark, falling more than 550 basis points within the day, the lowest since december last year. the onshore rmb closed at 6.8721 and depreciated 603 points
for some large foreign trade enterprises, the depreciation of rmb has brought more profits to orders settled in us dollars. for example, the value of an export goods is 50000 us dollars. previously, it was about 310000 yuan converted into rmb. after the exchange rate changed, it became 321000 yuan. if you do nothing, you earn 11000 yuan more. for orders of hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars, the exchange gain is as high as hundreds of thousands of yuan listed companies purchase the rmb, the board of directors would not hesitate to pay attention to the depreciation of the company's rmb. at the same time, a number of export enterprises such as jiaxin silk, chuangyuan culture and yingke medical also rose against the market due to the depreciation of rmb
however, for many enterprises, the depreciation may not be so beautiful
for example, when the exchange rate trend is clear, the past contract can be followed; however, after the devaluation of the rmb, many customers have to renegotiate the price, and the negotiation time is greatly extended. it is normal to delay for ten days and a half months
this is more common for small and medium-sized enterprises with weak bargaining power
for large enterprises, in order to share the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the forward settlement method is generally adopted, which also makes it difficult for large enterprises to enjoy all the benefits in the devaluation of rmb. if the future exchange rate fluctuations are uncertain, enterprises may suffer losses
the above foreign trade enterprises set the maximum executive price of long-term foreign exchange settlement at 6.85. under the background of rmb depreciation exceeding expectations, the enterprises will bear exchange losses of more than 300 basis points if they settle foreign exchange at this price. this will not only not enjoy the benefits brought by depreciation, but also bring losses
in fact, the depreciation of rmb will also have a significant impact on imports and form imported inflation. at present, china depends on imports in terms of oil, agricultural products and other bulk commodities. if it really depreciates, it will lead to the rise of domestic grain prices, oil prices and other commodities, and the era of high inflation will come soon. for small and medium-sized enterprises, raw materials are dependent on imports. the price of raw materials and production costs rise sharply, which will lead to further difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises to survive
break seven in the future
in the view of market participants, the depreciation of rmb is still the embodiment of sentiment
under the background of the rise of global trade protectionism, trade uncertainty and exchange rate fluctuations have become the most concerned issues of enterprises. today, there is still uncertainty in china us trade negotiations, and the sharp fluctuation of the rmb exchange rate against the us dollar is also an important challenge that foreign trade enterprises have to face
however, in everbright macro view, the rmb exchange rate may fluctuate at the current level in the short term, but it is unlikely to break through 7. once the economic and trade relations between the two countries ease, the rmb may rise slightly
"there is no room for substantial appreciation or depreciation of the rmb exchange rate. on the one hand, the rmb and the us dollar are two sides of the same coin. recently, the us economy has been weaker than expected than europe. the us dollar has strong shocks, but lacks the momentum of sustained and significant upward movement, so the rmb exchange rate has periodic and limited depreciation pressure. on the other hand, under external shocks, the rmb exchange rate may be more flexible and mechanically promises to maintain the rmb exchange rate rate stability is not desirable. looking back on history, export slowdown is a powerful factor that forces china to accelerate reform and adjustment; the export slowdown requires a more flexible rmb exchange rate. " monita researcher zhong zhengsheng said
at present, analysts have different opinions on the future trend of exchange rate. many people in the industry generally expect that the risk of rmb devaluation during the year is still controllable. as long as there are no major fluctuations in the domestic economy, although it may be difficult to be strong against the us dollar at the beginning of the year, it will not depreciate sharply. there are also views that the current trade war, the rmb exchange rate should be devalued
in the view of some foreign media, the sharp depreciation of rmb is a "counterattack" to sino us trade friction. however, as early as at the previous boao forum for asia, yi gang, governor of the central bank of china, said that china would not deal with trade disputes by devaluing the rmb
editor in charge: xu yunqian editor in chief: chen yanpeng