source: economic daily
in january, china's foreign trade achieved a "good start" with a growth rate of 8.7%, which was hard won. under the complex and severe external environment and the increasing downward pressure on the economy, this report card not only reflects the increasing endogenous driving force of china's foreign trade, but also reflects the strong toughness of china's foreign trade development
while seeing the above highlights, we should also see that china's foreign trade is still happy and worried, and this "worry" is likely to increase in the future with the weakening of external demand. from the comprehensive analysis of all aspects, we should maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the development of foreign trade in the whole year. from the specific data of import and export, three changes deserve attention
the first is the expansion of trade surplus. data show that china's trade surplus in january was 271.16 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. from a technical point of view, this situation is mainly caused by seasonal factors. usually, the foreign trade data at the beginning of each year will fluctuate significantly due to the spring festival. manufacturers are often used to centralized export before the spring festival. in addition, the low year-on-year base last year directly pushed up the export growth rate of this month, resulting in the expansion of the trade surplus
secondly, china's import and export to the eu, asean and relevant countries along the "the belt and road" and other major trading partners showed rapid growth, but the sino us trade was declining, which reflected that china's export market diversification construction had made phased achievements. the next step is to continue to increase the diversification of the trade market, which is still one of the important ways to stabilize the growth of foreign trade. we need to pay attention to it and form a joint force. we should estimate the difficulties more fully and try our best to minimize the losses caused by trade frictions
third, look at the impact of different currency pricing on the growth of foreign trade scientifically. in january, if denominated in us dollars, china's total import and export value increased by only about 4%. if denominated in rmb, china's foreign trade grew by 8.7%. from the numerical point of view alone, the difference between the two is more than twice, which may cause market misreading and then affect the expectation and confidence of foreign trade development. it should be pointed out that the reason why the statistical results are so different is mainly because the rmb exchange rate depreciated significantly last year, which affected the foreign trade statistics to a certain extent. if the rmb exchange rate can remain basically stable at a reasonable level this year, the trade volume and growth gap between the two currencies will be significantly narrowed or even synchronized
from the perspective of the development law of the foreign trade industry, the monthly data alone is not enough to make an accurate judgment on the annual foreign trade. the focus should be shifted to the study and judgment of the medium and long-term trend of foreign trade. we should not only see the favorable factors existing in the development of foreign trade, but also face more difficulties that may arise in the future, take more effective and powerful measures to continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of foreign trade development, promote foreign trade to take the road of high-quality development on the basis of stable growth. (gu yang)